Jacob deGrom
—
A machine-learning pitching model projects strikeouts for every starter, compares them to the market, and surfaces only the bets with a real mathematical edge. You get the plays — and the receipts.
Live slate
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
—
—
—
VIP play
Unlock slate2 VIP plays live on today's board. Unlock the full slate →
The system
DeadMoneyVault is a model, not a guy with a hot take. Here's the pipeline behind every play.
A gradient-boosted pitching model ingests matchup, plate-discipline, park, umpire, weather, and rest signals to project a full strikeout distribution for each scheduled starter.
Each projection is converted to a fair probability, then measured against the de-vigged sportsbook line. Only spots where the model and market disagree enough to clear the vig survive.
Surviving plays are ranked by expected value with a Kelly-sized stake, so you know not just what to bet but how much. Then every pick is graded against the closing line.
Proof, not promises
Closing-line value is the honest scoreboard — it shows we're beating the number the sharpest money settles on, not just getting lucky.
Based on 1,840 graded plays as of Saturday, June 27, 2026. These figures reflect backtested performance during live validation and are not a guarantee of future results.
Pricing
Watch the free plays hit the closing line for a week. The math will do the selling.
A daily taste of the model. No card required.
The full slate, ranked by edge, with Kelly stakes.
Payments launch shortly — join the waitlist and lock in founding-member pricing.
FAQ
A strikeout prop is a bet on how many batters a starting pitcher will strike out, set as a line like 6.5 with Over/Under odds. DeadMoneyVault projects each starter's strikeouts and flags the side where the model has a measurable edge over the sportsbook line.
It projects a full strikeout distribution for every scheduled starter from matchup, plate-discipline, park, umpire, weather and rest data, converts that to a fair probability, and compares it to the de-vigged market line. Only spots that clear the vig with margin to spare become picks.
Every pick is logged before first pitch and graded against the actual result and the closing line. We publish closing-line value (CLV) because beating the closing number is the most reliable long-run signal that an edge is real rather than lucky.
No. Anyone who guarantees gambling profits is lying. Betting carries risk and variance means losing stretches are normal even with a real edge. We give you the model's edges and a transparent, graded track record so you can decide for yourself.
DeadMoneyVault is an information and analytics service — we don't take bets or handle wagers. You place any bets yourself with a licensed sportsbook where legal. You must be 21+ and within a jurisdiction that permits sports wagering.
Free members see one to two graded plays each slate plus the full public track record. VIP unlocks the complete daily slate ranked by expected value, with a Kelly-sized stake, model probability, fair line and projected strikeouts for every play.
Today's free plays are already posted. See where the model disagrees with the market.
See today's edges