Methodology
How the DeadMoneyVault Receptions Model Works
7 min read
DeadMoneyVault's picks come from a receptions model that projects how many passes every WR, TE and RB will catch, prices each prop against the sportsbook market, and builds the week's ten best 2-leg parlays. This page explains each step in plain English — what goes in, what comes out, and the guardrails in between.
Step 1 — a full catch distribution for every player
For each pass-catcher with a posted line, the model estimates the probability of every catch count, from zero upward. It combines two views:
- A learned model trained on several seasons of play-by-play, using target share, routes, role changes, recent usage trends, matchup, game script and injury reports.
- A team-level simulator that starts from the team's expected pass volume and splits targets among the receivers who are actually active — so when a starter is out, his targets move to teammates in a realistic way, and teammates' outcomes stay correlated.
The two are blended and calibrated on held-out seasons so the stated probabilities match how often things actually happen.
Step 2 — anchored to the market
The sportsbook price is the best single forecast available, so the model doesn't ignore it. Each projected probability is blended with the market's de-vigged fair probability, with weights learned from past seasons. The result leans away from the market only where the historical evidence supports it — which keeps the model honest and stops it from producing wild, confident disagreements that history says would be wrong.
Step 3 — only legs that clear the fair price
A leg is eligible for a parlay only if its probability is at least the market's fair probability for that side, and its price is no shorter than −250. That second rule exists on purpose: near-certain legs at −1000 or worse don't add value to a parlay, they just disguise a single bet.
Step 4 — pairs, priced for correlation
Eligible legs are paired into 2-leg parlays whose combined price lands between +100 and +300. Legs from different games are treated as independent; legs from the same game use the simulator's joint outcomes, because two receivers on one team compete for the same targets. The ten best pairs by expected value — with no player repeated — become the week's board, and the stated chance to hit is shrunk toward the market so it reads honestly.
Step 5 — dealt as packs
The board's ranking sets each parlay's rarity, and free members open three packs a week drawn from it. See how packs and rarity work for the exact odds.
What the model can't do
It can't see news that breaks after the lines are pulled, it can't guarantee anything, and in a sharp market any real edge is small and noisy. Parlays also combine the sportsbook's margin on both legs. Treat every pick as the model's read of the market — information, not advice.
New to props? Start with what reception props are, or see this week's packs.
Frequently asked
- How does DeadMoneyVault make its picks?
- A receptions model projects a full catch-count distribution for every WR, TE and RB with a posted line, anchors each probability to the de-vigged sportsbook price, keeps only legs priced at or above the market's fair probability, pairs them into 2-leg parlays paying +100 to +300, and ranks the ten best by expected value.
- Does the model beat the sportsbooks?
- No model can promise that. Sportsbook closing lines on props are sharp, so the model is deliberately anchored to the market and only leans away from it where years of history support it. Picks are estimates, not guarantees.
- Why are so many picks unders?
- Across recent seasons, player-prop overs have hit slightly less often than their prices implied — books tend to shade the popular over. Because the model is calibrated to that history, the legs that clear its fair-price bar are more often unders.