Today's edges

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···Get the edge

Strikeout edges — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Every play graded against the result and the closing line.

Day result10-5Kelly+19.02u

Midday

2 plays

Day games · lineups confirmed

VIP plays

Joe Ryan

MIN · 2:11 PM ET

win

Under 7.5Ks

+105

Final6 K

Edge

+54.1%

Proj Ks

6.0

Stake

12.9u

Model

75%

Fair

45%

vs Mkt

+26.4pt

Bubba Chandler

PIT · 4:06 PM ET

win

Over 4.5Ks

+114

Final6 K

Edge

+27.5%

Proj Ks

5.2

Stake

6.0u

Model

60%

Fair

44%

vs Mkt

+12.8pt

Evening

7 plays

Night games · lineups confirmed

Free play

Peter Lambert

HOU · 7:06 PM ET

win

Over 4.5Ks

-115

Final7 K

Edge

+6.6%

Proj Ks

5.0

Stake

1.9u

Model

57%

Fair

50%

vs Mkt

+3.5pt

VIP plays

Tyler Mahle

SF · 4:06 PM ET

win

Under 5.5Ks

-160

Final4 K

Edge

+20.0%

Proj Ks

4.3

Stake

8.0u

Model

74%

Fair

59%

vs Mkt

+12.3pt

Tanner Bibee

CLE · 4:11 PM ET

win

Under 4.5Ks

-125

Final3 K

Edge

+16.7%

Proj Ks

3.9

Stake

5.2u

Model

65%

Fair

53%

vs Mkt

+9.3pt

Casey Mize

DET · 6:11 PM ET

win

Under 5.5Ks

-105

Final5 K

Edge

+15.6%

Proj Ks

5.1

Stake

4.1u

Model

59%

Fair

48%

vs Mkt

+8.0pt

Freddy Peralta

NYM · 4:11 PM ET

loss

Under 5.5Ks

+100

Final6 K

Edge

+15.1%

Proj Ks

5.2

Stake

3.8u

Model

58%

Fair

47%

vs Mkt

+7.6pt

Javier Assad

CHC · 7:11 PM ET

win

Over 3.5Ks

-110

Final4 K

Edge

+13.6%

Proj Ks

4.1

Stake

3.7u

Model

59%

Fair

49%

vs Mkt

+7.1pt

Griffin Jax

TB · 4:11 PM ET

loss

Over 5.5Ks

-124

Final3 K

Edge

+7.4%

Proj Ks

6.1

Stake

2.3u

Model

59%

Fair

52%

vs Mkt

+4.1pt

Late

6 plays

Late west-coast games · lineups confirmed

Free play

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD · 9:10 PM ET

win

Under 6.5Ks

-155

Final6 K

Edge

+5.9%

Proj Ks

5.8

Stake

2.3u

Model

64%

Fair

57%

vs Mkt

+3.6pt

VIP plays

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ · 9:10 PM ET

loss

Over 3.5Ks

-103

Final2 K

Edge

+33.9%

Proj Ks

4.6

Stake

8.7u

Model

68%

Fair

47%

vs Mkt

+17.2pt

Matthew Liberatore

STL · 7:15 PM ET

loss

Under 4.5Ks

-113

Final6 K

Edge

+25.8%

Proj Ks

3.8

Stake

7.3u

Model

67%

Fair

50%

vs Mkt

+13.7pt

Walker Buehler

SD · 8:41 PM ET

win

Under 3.5Ks

+120

Final1 K

Edge

+20.4%

Proj Ks

3.5

Stake

4.3u

Model

55%

Fair

42%

vs Mkt

+9.3pt

Kumar Rocker

TEX · 7:06 PM ET

loss

Under 4.5Ks

-135

Final6 K

Edge

+18.2%

Proj Ks

3.7

Stake

6.1u

Model

68%

Fair

54%

vs Mkt

+10.4pt

Nick Lodolo

CIN · 7:11 PM ET

win

Under 4.5Ks

+118

Final4 K

Edge

+8.5%

Proj Ks

4.7

Stake

1.8u

Model

50%

Fair

43%

vs Mkt

+3.9pt

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